Situando el tema: Aunque la presentación de los Presupuestos del Estado y la Seguridad Social vienen siempre precedidos de una gran parafernalia mediática, hay que tener en cuenta que su importancia cuantitativa es menor cada vez ya que se refieren a las administraciones centrales, es decir, al Estado y a la Seguridad Social, que suponen sólo una parte del gasto público total, siendo las Comunidades Autónomas y los Ayuntamientos los que suponen una cifra creciente del gasto. Así el déficit del Estado central se prevé que constituirá el 3,5% del PIB, mientras que el de las CC.AA. será del 1,5 y las Corporaciones locales el 0,3%, pero el Presupuesto que comentamos se refiere sólo al estado Central. Si, además, se tiene en cuenta que los gastos e ingresos de la Seguridad Social son poco proclives a cambiar por razones de política económica pues están sujetos a compromisos previos, nos quedan únicamente los gastos e ingresos centrales a considerar que, aunque son importantes, distan mucho de suponer la totalidad de las haciendas públicas.
Por otra parte, desde que el Partido Popular ganó las elecciones se han presentado cifras distintas acerca de la magnitud del déficit y los compromisos de su contención: desde el 6,8% que fijaba el anterior Gobierno, que había aceptado reducirlo al 4,4% en 2012, al 8,5 % que señala el ejecutivo actual que advirtió que sólo podría reducirlo al 5,8 si bien presionado por la UE aceptó el porcentaje del 5,3% de déficit como objetivo para 2012. Hay que tener en cuenta, además, que las cifras del Presupuesto son previsiones basadas en estimaciones de la evolución económica y que ambos conjuntos de estimaciones pueden muy bien no cumplirse. Estos bailes de números dan lugar a que las cifras se puedan manejar de formas muy distintas, por lo que considero que es más importante un tratamiento cualitativo de lo que significan los presupuestos que empeñarse en jugar con cifras de difícil precisión.
Lo esperado, los recortes: Ya era sabido que el Presupuesto del Estado y de la Seguridad Social (Presupuestos en adelante) iba a establecer un fuerte recorte del gasto público –‘el mayor recorte desde la democracia española’-, que ha supuesto una caída de casi el 17% del gasto medio de los ministerios, 13.400 millones de euros en la estructura del Estado. Un recorte en el gasto de esta magnitud no puede menos que afectar muy negativamente las posibilidades de reactivación de la economía española. De hecho, se ha aceptado ya por la propia administración que este año el PIB caerá un 1,7% y se pueden perder hasta 600.000 puestos de trabajo. Es decir, los presupuestos refuerzan el círculo vicioso de la economía española abundando en la recesión y la dramática y disparatada magnitud del paro. Alguien tendría que explicar en detalle como piensan que estas medidas permitan mejorar eventualmente la economía española. Es curioso que se insiste en que estas medidas son inevitables, que ‘no hay otra alternativa’, pero ningún brillante economista que asesora al Gobierno actual, como los que asesoraron al anterior, explica en detalle como piensan que esto va a suceder. Se limitan a decir que esto proporcionará confianza a los mercados, y al mismo tiempo son capaces de señalar que los mercados, la Unión Europea y el FMI están muy preocupados no sólo por la magnitud de la deuda sino por la del paro y la débil capacidad productiva del país. ¿Cómo piensan resolver este problema entonces? Porque estas medidas no pueden conducir más que a un deterioro de ambos aspectos, la capacidad de mejorar la actividad económica y la magnitud del paro.
Revisando, muy brevemente, los recortes por ministerios esta impresión se acentúa: los ministerios más afectados son aquellos más vinculados a las actividades productivas –Fomento, Industria, Energía y Turismo, Agricultura, alimentación y medio ambiente y Empleo y Seguridad Social. A destacar que en este último, cuando hay más de cinco millones de parados, se eliminan 2.458 millones de euros en el Servicio Público de Empleo Estatal. Lo que conduce a lo obvio: se reducen los gastos para este Servicio y, así, se puede explicar que hay que dar entrada a las empresas privadas para los Servicios de Empleo. Si observamos qué sucede por capítulos, las inversiones públicas experimentan un intenso bajón y, prácticamente desaparece el gasto en desarrollo rural (Agricultura), con lo que el estímulo a la actividad económica queda reducido a mínimos, mientras que en el gasto social disminuyen las políticas activas de empleo en 1.500 millones, las ayudas al acceso a la vivienda en un 42%, el gasto en el ministerio de Sanidad en un 13,7% y las transferencias en Educación en un 35,4%, y así sucesivamente. Es decir, este Presupuesto sólo puede suponer una fuerte disminución de la actividad económica y un deterioro de la suerte de quienes necesitan del gasto social.
No hay otra alternativa: La única ‘razón’ que nos dan para ello es: ‘no hay otra alternativa’ ….¿Es así realmente? ¿Es la situación española tan desesperada que no hay ninguna otra posibilidad? ¿No hay posibilidad alguna de recuperar el crédito para las empresas y las familias, de mejorar la situación del mercado laboral para aumentar la demanda que facilite una, aunque sea modesta, recuperación de la actividad? ¡Que poca capacidad para la gestión social!
Parece que el temor es a que desde la Unión Europea nos impongan un rescate; muchos comentaristas ya no se preguntan si nos rescataran o no, sino cuando. Se supone que el rescate, si es necesario, es debido a nuestra situación respecto a la deuda externa, y a las dificultades para satisfacer nuestras obligaciones respecto a la misma. Pero hay también muchos comentaristas no menos rigurosos que mantienen que el problema de la deuda del Estado español no es la deuda pública, sino la magnitud de la deuda privada y la limitada capacidad de su sistema productivo. ¿Por qué el estado español ha de empobrecerse y deteriorar su capacidad de producir riqueza por muchos años, por que una cuarta parte de su población sufrir los horrores del paro – mientras, además, algunos empresarios pretenden disminuir o eliminar el subsidio de desempleo-, una gran parte de los trabajadores ver deteriorarse sus condiciones de trabajo y salarios, la población ver que desaparecen unos derechos sociales muy trabajosamente logrados y que deterioran gravemente si nivel de vida, para pagar las deudas que las grandes empresas españolas y sobre todo el capital financiero español tiene con los grandes bancos europeos? Ya nos están imponiendo medidas de una dureza y severidad análogas a las del rescate, ¿son necesarias todavía más? ¿No podrían considerarse otras medidas basadas en una negociación de la deuda, una quita de la misma y una demora en el cumplimiento de los límites del déficit y la deuda? En que planteamiento de la ciencia económica se basa el establecer que el déficit ha de ser el 5,3% este año y el 3% el año próximo? Son disposiciones totalmente arbitrarias que se basan en el poder de los grandes agentes económicos y los políticos que siguen sus normas.
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